China’s Subprime Mortgage Crash
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The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) started three years ago,
but China seems to be immune to it.
Under the tightening monetary policy,
many of enterprises are turning into shadow banks.
With the due date of loan sharking approaching,
the economic claps occur continuously.
Foreign media warned that the Chinese version
of the Subprime Mortgage Crash is approaching.
After the start of the GFC in 2008,
China began changing its monetary policy.
For small and medium size firms its difficult
to access the formal banking sector.
Instead, they loan money from shadow lenders
who are actually state companies.
The official sector can obtain money from state-owned banks
and issue loans to other borrowers with higher interest rates.
In addition, non state-owned shadow banks are expanding,
and more problems are being exposed.
Economists are worried that China is starting to follow
the pattern of the U.S.’ Subprime Mortgage Crash.
During the World Economic Forum held in Dalian last week,
a former vice chairman of NPC, Cheng Siwei said:
“China’s Subprime Mortgage Crash is the lending of money
to local governments which have no ability to repay them.”
It is estimated that 80% of the loans from the top four banks
in China go to state-owned firms.
But now China has different shadow banks, from state-owned
to individuals’ firm, most of them with officials’ background.
Local governments use state funds to invest in businesses,
and the funds are estimated to be ca. $1.7 trillion.
These shadow banks are outside the banking and financial
sectors and are thus less regulated or not regulated at all.
Economist Cao An thinks that the state-owned firms
have the advantage of funds.
They can lend the money through guarantee companies
or other platforms.
In this lack of credit system, once the problem is exposed,
it will be worse than what happened in the U.S.
Cao An: “The economic trend is at a low point,
small or medium-sized firms need plenty of funds.
But even with the loans it is difficult for them to make
60-100% profit and service the loan; this is a risk for lenders.
Therefore if the borrowers fail to service and repay the loans,
this will become a bad debt.”
China added new loans, adjusted to its GDP. They went up
to 200%, from 100% prior to Lehman Brothers’ collapse.
Subsequently, the bad debt rate raised
from 1% in the first half of 2010 to 4.9% in 2011.
Chen Zhifei, Economy Professor, New York City University,
points out experts’ analysis,
which shows 2011 as the most difficult year for China
since China’s open market economy had started.
According to a survey done by the Industrial Federation,
90% of the firms in China don’t get a penny from the banks,
and 95% of the private firms don’t get loans from banks
either, showing that funds allocation is not sound.
Chen Zhifei: “China’s fund distribution is for state-owned
enterprises, This policy exists for 10 to 20 years now.
After the GFC started, China had loaned
RMB 4 trillion for investments.
If these investments’ loans do not get repaid, they will turn
into bad debts and the country’s economy will collapse.”
Beijing economist Mao Yushi points out that although
the top four banks in China are controlled by the government, the accumulation of bad debts still occurs
Mao Yushi: “The companies borrow money from the banks
and lend them as high interest rate loans.
The problem is due to lack of interest rates’ market regulation.
It’s bureaucratic as it’s the privileged who can borrow money.
Most of the people can only borrow high interest rate loans,
this is the reason why the problem exists for so long.”
Mao Yushi thinks that the solution to these problems
is to open small and medium-sized banks,
and let people establish such banks as well,
not only the government.
NTD reporters Liang Xi, Li Ting and Wang Mingyu.
《神韵》2011世界巡演新亮点
http://www.ShenYunPerformingArts.org/
Duration : 0:3:54
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